Fixed vs Variable Mortgage — Which Should You Choose?

Choosing between a fixed and variable rate mortgage is one of the biggest financial decisions you’ll make as a homebuyer. I’ve put together this guide to break down the key differences, show you historical data on how each option has performed, and help you figure out which makes the most sense for your situation in today’s rate environment.

Updated February 22, 2026

Aman Nanda

Aman Nanda

Mortgage Broker & Realtor · Century 21 Coastal Realty Ltd.

Fixed vs Variable at a Glance

Fixed Rate

3.94%

Best 5-year fixed

  • Payment locked for full term
  • Zero rate risk
  • Higher penalties to break early

Best for: Stability seekers, first-time buyers, tight budgets

Variable Rate

3.84%

Best variable (Prime − 1.11%)

  • Historically cheaper ~80% of the time
  • Low penalties, easy to switch to fixed
  • Rate fluctuates with Bank of Canada decisions

Best for: Flexible borrowers, likely to move/refinance, rate-savvy

Current Spread: 0.10%

The gap between fixed and variable rates has narrowed significantly in early 2026. With rates this close, the decision is less about savings and more about your risk tolerance, flexibility needs, and outlook on where rates are headed.

What Is a Fixed Rate Mortgage?

A fixed rate mortgage locks your interest rate for the entire term of your mortgage — typically 5 years in Canada, though terms range from 1 to 10 years. Your monthly payment stays exactly the same from day one to the end of the term, regardless of what happens with interest rates in the broader economy.

How Fixed Rates Are Set

Unlike variable rates, fixed mortgage rates are not directly tied to the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate. They’re determined by Government of Canada bond yields, specifically the 5-year bond for 5-year fixed mortgages. When bond yields rise (because investors expect higher future rates or inflation), fixed mortgage rates follow. This is why fixed rates sometimes move in the opposite direction of BoC rate cuts — a dynamic that surprised many borrowers in 2024 and 2025.

Fixed Rate Terms Available in Canada

TermNotes
1-YearShort commitment; good if you plan to sell soon or expect rates to drop
2-YearBridge between short and medium; slightly lower rate than 1-year
3-YearPopular alternative to the 5-year; often better rates, lower penalties
5-YearThe Canadian default — most common, most competitive rates
7-YearExtra certainty but higher rate; rarely the best value
10-YearMaximum stability but significant rate premium; very few borrowers choose this

Pros and Cons of Fixed Rate

Advantages

  • Complete payment predictability
  • Protection against rate increases
  • Easier budgeting for homeowners
  • Peace of mind during uncertain times

Disadvantages

  • ×Usually higher rate than variable
  • ×Expensive IRD penalty to break early
  • ×Miss out if rates drop during your term
  • ×Less flexibility than variable

💡 The 5-Year Default

About 66% of Canadian mortgages are on a 5-year fixed term. It offers the most competitive rates and the most product choices. However, research shows that shorter terms (like 3-year fixed) or variable rates have historically saved borrowers money — the 5-year fixed is popular because of certainty, not cost savings.

What Is a Variable Rate Mortgage?

A variable rate mortgage is tied to your lender’s prime rate, which moves in lockstep with the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate. Your rate is quoted as prime minus (or occasionally plus) a discount — for example, Prime − 1.11%. The discount is negotiated at the time of your approval and stays fixed for the entire term. What changes is the prime rate itself, which adjusts whenever the BoC makes a rate announcement.

VRM vs ARM — A Critical Distinction

In Canada, there are two types of variable-rate products, and the difference matters significantly:

Variable Rate Mortgage (VRM)

Your payment stays the same when rates change. What adjusts is the split between interest and principal within your payment. When rates rise, more of your payment goes to interest and less to principal. This means you pay off your mortgage more slowly, but your monthly cash flow is predictable.

Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM)

Your payment changes when rates change. If prime goes up by 0.25%, your monthly payment increases accordingly. This keeps your amortization schedule on track but means your budget needs to accommodate fluctuations.

What Is a Trigger Rate?

The trigger rate applies only to VRMs (not ARMs). It’s the point at which your fixed payment no longer covers even the interest portion of your mortgage — meaning zero goes toward principal. During the 2022–2023 rate hikes, thousands of Canadian VRM holders hit their trigger rates for the first time. When this happens, lenders typically require you to increase your payment or make a lump-sum payment to get back on track.

⚠️ Trigger Rate Risk

If you choose a VRM, make sure you understand your trigger rate and have a plan if rates spike. Ask your lender to calculate it at the time of your approval. This risk does not apply to ARMs since their payments adjust automatically.

Capped Variable Rates

Some lenders offer capped variable rates that include a maximum rate ceiling. For example, you might get a variable rate of Prime − 0.85% with a cap of 6.00%. This gives you variable rate savings potential with a defined worst-case scenario. The trade-off is that capped products typically come with a smaller discount than uncapped variable rates.

Hybrid / Combination Mortgages

A hybrid mortgage splits your balance between fixed and variable portions — for example, 60% fixed and 40% variable. This is a middle-ground option that provides partial stability while still capturing some variable-rate savings. Not all lenders offer this, but it’s worth asking about if you’re torn between the two options.

Pros and Cons of Variable Rate

Advantages

  • Historically cheaper ~80% of the time
  • Low penalty to break (3 months’ interest)
  • Can convert to fixed mid-term, usually penalty-free
  • Benefits immediately from rate cuts

Disadvantages

  • ×Rate can rise if BoC hikes
  • ×VRM trigger rate risk in rising-rate environments
  • ×Less certainty for budgeting
  • ×Can be stressful during volatile periods

Fixed vs Variable — Complete Comparison

Here’s a side-by-side comparison across every dimension that matters when choosing your mortgage rate type.

FeatureFixed RateVariable Rate
Rate BasisGovernment bond yieldsBank of Canada prime rate
Payment StabilityPayment never changes during termVRM: payment fixed, but interest split changes. ARM: payment changes.
Typical SavingsCertainty premium — you pay for stabilityHistorically cheaper ~80% of the time
Breaking PenaltyGreater of 3 months’ interest or IRD — can be $10K–$30K+Typically 3 months’ interest — usually $2K–$6K
FlexibilityLocked in — costly to break or switchCan convert to fixed mid-term (usually penalty-free)
Risk LevelLow — no surprisesModerate — rate can rise or fall with prime
Stress Test RateContract rate + 2% or 5.25%, whichever is higherSame stress test rules apply
Rate ChangesZero during termChanges when BoC adjusts overnight rate (up to 8 times/year)
CompoundingSemi-annual (Canadian standard)Monthly
Best WhenRates are expected to rise, or you need certaintyRates are expected to fall, or you want flexibility
Ideal ForFirst-time buyers, tight budgets, long-term holdersRate-savvy borrowers, likely to move/refinance, comfortable with fluctuation
PortabilityUsually portable to a new propertyUsually portable, with potentially easier terms

Fixed vs Variable Rates Right Now — 2026 Update

Updated February 22, 2026Updated after every Bank of Canada decision

BoC Overnight Rate

2.75%

Drives variable mortgage rates

Prime Rate

4.95%

Most big-bank prime rate

Fixed–Variable Spread

0.10%

Historically narrow

Variable and fixed rates have nearly converged in early 2026, with the spread between the best 5-year fixed and best variable rate sitting at just 0.10%. After seven consecutive rate cuts in 2024–2025, the Bank of Canada paused at 2.75% in January 2026. Prime rate sits at 4.95%, and with competitive variable discounts around Prime − 1.11%, effective variable rates are hovering near 3.84%.

Markets are pricing in one more 25bp cut by mid-2026, which would bring prime to 4.70% and the best variable rates closer to 3.59%. However, US trade policy uncertainty under CUSMA renegotiation (expiring June 2026) could stall further easing. With the spread this narrow, the historical advantage of variable over fixed has largely disappeared in the short term — making the choice more about risk tolerance and flexibility than pure savings. If the BoC resumes cutting, variable will pull ahead. If rates hold, fixed locks in certainty at a similar cost.

Historical Fixed vs Variable Mortgage Rates in Canada

This chart shows the best available 5-year fixed and variable mortgage rates in Canada from 2013 to present. The key takeaway: variable rates were consistently lower than fixed rates for nearly a decade — until the 2022–2023 rate hiking cycle flipped the relationship temporarily. By late 2025, the traditional pattern has largely returned.

0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%20132015201720192021202320253.94%3.84%5-Year FixedVariableCOVID Rate CutsVariable > Fixed

Source: Bank of Canada, Ratehub. Best available discounted rates, sampled quarterly 2013–2026.

View chart data as table
Date5-Year FixedVariable
2013-013.09%2.70%
2014-013.39%2.70%
2015-012.69%2.30%
2016-012.54%2.15%
2017-012.54%2.30%
2018-013.24%2.80%
2019-013.34%3.15%
2020-012.59%2.80%
2021-011.64%1.25%
2022-012.84%1.50%
2023-014.84%5.80%
2024-014.99%6.20%
2025-013.99%4.45%
2026-013.94%3.84%

How Many Canadians Choose Variable?

These charts show how Canadian borrowers have shifted between fixed and variable over time. During the ultra-low rate era of 2020–2021, over half of new mortgages were variable. After the 2022–2023 rate hikes, that share crashed below 15%. It’s now recovering as rates come back down.

New Mortgage Originations by Type

0%20%40%60%80%100%20132016201920222025FixedVariablePeak: 56%

Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC. Quarterly data 2013–2026.

View data as table
QuarterVariable %Fixed %
2013-Q127%73%
2013-Q329%71%
2014-Q128%72%
2014-Q330%70%
2015-Q130%70%
2015-Q328%72%
2016-Q126%74%
2016-Q327%73%
2017-Q130%70%
2017-Q333%67%
2018-Q135%65%
2018-Q332%68%
2019-Q128%72%
2019-Q326%74%
2020-Q125%75%
2020-Q338%62%
2021-Q148%52%
2021-Q356%44%
2022-Q152%48%
2022-Q322%78%
2023-Q112%88%
2023-Q310%90%
2024-Q114%86%
2024-Q322%78%
2025-Q128%72%
2025-Q335%65%
2026-Q138%62%

Outstanding Mortgage Balances by Type

0%20%40%60%80%100%20132016201920222025Fixed (76%)Variable (24%)

Source: Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada. Quarterly data 2013–2026.

View data as table
QuarterVariable %Fixed %
2013-Q124%76%
2013-Q324%76%
2014-Q124%76%
2014-Q325%75%
2015-Q125%75%
2015-Q325%75%
2016-Q124%76%
2016-Q324%76%
2017-Q125%75%
2017-Q326%74%
2018-Q127%73%
2018-Q327%73%
2019-Q126%74%
2019-Q325%75%
2020-Q125%75%
2020-Q326%74%
2021-Q128%72%
2021-Q331%69%
2022-Q133%67%
2022-Q330%70%
2023-Q127%73%
2023-Q325%75%
2024-Q123%77%
2024-Q322%78%
2025-Q122%78%
2025-Q323%77%
2026-Q124%76%

How Much Could You Save? Real Numbers for BC

Here’s what the monthly payment difference looks like at typical BC price points, based on today’s best available rates (3.94% fixed vs 3.84% variable). All scenarios assume 25-year amortization with 20% down payment where applicable.

Rates as of February 22, 2026 — 3.94% fixed, 3.84% variable
PropertyMortgageFixed /moVariable /moDiff /mo5-Year Savings
$500K Condo$450,000$2,352$2,336$17$1,007
$800K Townhome$640,000$3,346$3,322$24$1,432
$1.2M Detached$960,000$5,019$4,983$36$2,149
$2M Luxury$1,600,000$8,364$8,305$60$3,581

💡 Important Note

These scenarios assume the variable rate stays constant for the full 5-year term. In reality, variable rates will change with Bank of Canada decisions. If the BoC cuts further, savings increase. If the BoC raises rates, savings decrease or could reverse. The figures also depend on your specific credit score, down payment, and lender — contact me for a personalized comparison.

When a Fixed Rate Mortgage Makes Sense

  • You’re a first-time buyer

    When you’re new to homeownership, there’s already enough financial uncertainty. A fixed rate removes one more variable from the equation and lets you focus on settling in.

  • Your budget has no room for surprises

    If a $200–$400 monthly payment increase would put you in financial difficulty, fixed provides a hard floor of certainty. You know exactly what you’ll pay for the next 5 years.

  • You believe rates will rise

    If you think the Bank of Canada will hike rates (due to inflation, trade disputes, or economic overheating), locking in today’s rate protects you from higher costs.

  • You’re staying in the home for the full term

    Fixed rates make the most sense when you plan to keep the mortgage for the entire 5-year term. If you might sell or refinance, the expensive IRD penalty becomes a real risk.

  • You’d lose sleep over rate changes

    There’s real value in peace of mind. If checking the BoC rate announcement 8 times a year would cause you stress, fixed is the right call.

When a Variable Rate Mortgage Makes Sense

  • You’re comfortable with some fluctuation

    If you can absorb a 1–2% rate increase without financial strain, variable gives you access to historically lower rates about 80% of the time.

  • You might sell or refinance before the term ends

    Variable rate penalties are typically just 3 months’ interest. On a $500K mortgage, that’s roughly $4,800 vs. potentially $15,000–$30,000+ for a fixed rate IRD penalty.

  • You want the option to lock in later

    Most lenders let you convert from variable to fixed mid-term without penalty. You start with the lower rate and have an escape route if conditions change.

  • You’re strategic about prepayments

    The smart variable rate strategy (below) involves paying as if you had the fixed rate and putting the difference toward principal. This approach has historically outperformed fixed in most rate environments.

  • Rates are expected to decline

    In an easing cycle (like 2024–2025), variable rate holders benefit immediately from every BoC cut, while fixed rate holders are locked in at the higher rate until their term ends.

“Variable isn’t gambling — it’s a calculated strategy with a proven track record. The key is having the financial cushion to handle rate fluctuations.”

The Smart Variable Rate Strategy

This is the approach I recommend to most of my clients who choose variable. It combines the cost advantage of variable with the discipline of fixed-rate payments:

1

Get the variable rate

Lock in a competitive variable rate (e.g., Prime − 1.11% = 3.84% today).

2

Make payments as if you had the fixed rate

Set your payment amount to match what the 3.94% fixed rate would cost. Most lenders allow you to set a higher payment.

3

The difference goes straight to principal

Since your actual interest cost is lower, the extra amount goes directly to paying down your mortgage balance faster.

4

Result: faster payoff + interest savings

You’re paying the same amount as a fixed-rate borrower, but more of it goes to principal. Over 5 years, this compounds into meaningful savings and a lower remaining balance.

Why This Works

Even if rates rise and the variable advantage disappears, you haven’t lost anything — you were already budgeting for the higher payment. And if rates stay low or drop further, you accelerate your mortgage payoff significantly. It’s a win-win strategy in most scenarios.

Can You Switch from Variable to Fixed?

Yes — and this flexibility is one of the biggest advantages of choosing variable. Here’s how switching and conversion works in Canada:

Variable → Fixed (mid-term conversion)

Most lenders allow you to convert from variable to fixed at any time during your term, typically without penalty. The catch: you get the lender’s posted fixed rate at the time of conversion, not the best discounted rate you’d get shopping around. Still, it’s a valuable escape route if rates spike.

Fixed → Variable (breaking the mortgage)

Going from fixed to variable typically requires breaking your mortgage entirely and starting a new one. This triggers the penalty (see below), which for fixed rates can be very expensive. Some lenders offer blend-and-extend options at renewal time, but mid-term switches are costly.

Penalty Comparison

The penalty for breaking your mortgage early is where fixed and variable diverge most dramatically:

FeatureVariable PenaltyFixed Penalty
Calculation3 months’ interestGreater of 3 months’ interest or IRD
On $500K at 3.84%~$4,800$4,800 to $25,000+ (depends on IRD)
On $800K at current rates~$7,700$7,700 to $35,000+
PredictabilityVery predictable and consistentVaries wildly based on rate environment
When it matters mostAlways manageableWorst when rates have dropped since signing

⚠️ The IRD Penalty Trap

The Interest Rate Differential (IRD) compensates lenders for the rate difference over your remaining term. If you locked in at 5% and current rates are 3.5%, the IRD covers that 1.5% gap across your remaining years. On a large mortgage with 3+ years left, this can easily reach $20,000–$30,000. This is the single biggest financial risk of choosing fixed if there’s any chance you might sell, refinance, or need to break your mortgage.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is fixed or variable better in Canada right now?+

In early 2026, the spread between fixed and variable rates has narrowed significantly, making this a closer call than usual. The best 5-year fixed rates are around 3.94%, while the best variable rates sit near 3.84%. With the Bank of Canada paused at 2.75% and markets pricing in one more cut, variable offers a slight edge if rates continue falling. However, the savings are minimal right now. If you value certainty, fixed locks in a historically competitive rate. If you think rates will drop further, variable gives you the flexibility to benefit from that decline.

What is the difference between fixed and variable mortgage rates?+

A fixed rate locks your interest rate for the entire mortgage term (typically 5 years). Your payment stays identical every month regardless of what happens in the broader economy. A variable rate fluctuates with the Bank of Canada’s prime rate. When the BoC raises or lowers its overnight rate, your lender’s prime rate adjusts accordingly, and your interest cost changes. The key distinction in Canada is that variable rate mortgages (VRMs) keep your payment amount the same but adjust the interest-vs-principal split, while adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) actually change your payment amount.

What happens if variable rates go up?+

If the Bank of Canada raises its overnight rate, your lender’s prime rate increases and so does your variable mortgage rate. With a variable rate mortgage (VRM), your payment stays the same but more of it goes toward interest and less toward principal — meaning you pay off your mortgage more slowly. With an adjustable rate mortgage (ARM), your payment actually increases. In extreme cases, a VRM can hit its trigger rate, where your entire payment covers only interest with nothing going to principal. At that point, most lenders require you to increase your payment or make a lump sum.

Can I switch from variable to fixed during my term?+

Yes. Most Canadian lenders allow you to convert from a variable rate to a fixed rate during your term, usually without penalty. The catch is that you will get the lender’s posted fixed rate at the time of conversion, not the discounted rate you might get if you were shopping around. This conversion option is one of the biggest advantages of choosing variable — it gives you an escape route if rates spike. Going the other direction (fixed to variable) typically requires breaking your mortgage entirely and paying the penalty, which can be substantial.

What is a trigger rate?+

A trigger rate is specific to variable rate mortgages (VRMs) where your payment stays fixed but the interest-vs-principal split adjusts. It is the interest rate at which your entire monthly payment covers only interest, with zero going toward principal repayment. If prime rate rises past your trigger rate, you are no longer paying down your mortgage at all. During the 2022–2023 rate hikes, many Canadian VRM holders hit their trigger rates for the first time. Lenders typically respond by increasing your payment amount or requiring a lump-sum payment. Trigger rates do not apply to adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) because ARM payments increase automatically.

How is the variable rate discount calculated?+

Variable rate mortgages are quoted as prime rate minus (or sometimes plus) a discount. For example, Prime − 1.11% means if prime is 4.95%, your effective rate is 3.84%. The discount is negotiated at the time of your mortgage approval and stays fixed for your entire term. It does not change. What changes is the prime rate itself. So when the Bank of Canada cuts or raises rates, prime moves and your effective rate moves with it, but your discount remains constant. The size of the discount depends on market conditions, your credit profile, and the lender.

Should first-time buyers choose fixed or variable?+

Most first-time buyers benefit from starting with a fixed rate. When you are new to homeownership, there are already enough financial unknowns — property taxes, maintenance, insurance, utilities. A fixed rate removes one more variable from the equation and makes budgeting simpler. That said, if you have a healthy financial cushion and can absorb a rate increase of 1–2%, variable can save you money over the term. The key question is: would a payment increase cause you financial stress? If yes, fixed. If no, variable is worth considering.

What are the penalties for breaking a fixed vs variable mortgage?+

Breaking a variable rate mortgage typically costs 3 months’ interest, which on a $500,000 mortgage at 3.84% works out to roughly $4,800. Breaking a fixed rate mortgage is significantly more expensive because the penalty is the greater of 3 months’ interest or the Interest Rate Differential (IRD). The IRD compensates the lender for the difference between your contract rate and current rates over your remaining term. On a large mortgage with years left, IRD penalties can easily reach $15,000–$30,000. This is why variable rate mortgages offer much more flexibility if you think you might sell, refinance, or break your mortgage early.

What is a hybrid or combination mortgage?+

A hybrid or combination mortgage splits your total mortgage into two portions: one at a fixed rate and one at a variable rate. For example, you might put 60% on a 5-year fixed and 40% on a 5-year variable. This gives you partial protection against rate increases while still benefiting from potential variable rate savings. It is a middle-ground option for borrowers who want some stability but do not want to miss out entirely if rates drop. Not all lenders offer hybrid mortgages, and the terms can vary. I can help you find lenders that provide this option if it interests you.

How often do variable rates change in Canada?+

Variable rates change whenever the Bank of Canada adjusts its overnight lending rate, which it announces at 8 scheduled meetings per year (roughly every 6 weeks). The BoC can also make emergency inter-meeting adjustments, though this is rare. When the BoC changes its rate, Canadian lenders typically adjust their prime rate within days. Your variable mortgage rate then moves by the same amount. During stable periods, your rate might not change for months. During active adjustment cycles like 2022–2023, rates changed at nearly every meeting. Between meetings, your rate stays constant.

Not Sure Which Rate Type Is Right for You?

“I’ll walk you through the numbers for your specific situation — your income, your down payment, your timeline. No pressure, no obligation. Just a clear comparison of what fixed and variable would look like for you.”

Aman Nanda, Mortgage Broker & Realtor